A new consumer survey shows a clear increase in optimism, with respondents particularly pleased with their personal financial outlook.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index published Tuesday by RealClear Markets showed overall economic optimism increasing sharply to 47.9. It's still a pessimistic outlook overall (any score below 50 on this index suggests that), but the results are far better than November’s 43.9 reading.
When considering their personal financial outlook over the next six months, consumers were even more optimistic, with the index rising from an already optimistic 50.6 to 54.0.
That means individual consumers are not finding their own financial situation to be as gloomy as much of the media coverage suggests. Even more important for the housing market is that the most optimistic group of consumers are those in the 25-44 age group, exactly those consumers most likely to become first-time homebuyers. Their personal financial outlook scored a strong 64.2.
Consumers in the 18-24 age group, many of whom may be saving up for a down payment on their first home, were also optimistic about their personal financial outlook, with an index score of 58.1.
That message was reinforced by a separate survey the University of Michigan conducted that found “a 13% rise in expected personal finances” concentrated among younger consumers.
Both surveys suggested that consumers were more concerned about current economic conditions than about their personal finances. Moreover, the RCM/TIPP survey found that they were especially pessimistic about federal government economic policies (although, at 45.4, that component of the index increased from just 41.1 in November).
Jobs, unemployment numbers fuel angst
Those concerns are consistent with two recent economic data reports.
The federal government has not yet returned to its regular schedule for delivering data on the health of the jobs market, but an alternative report ADP published showed a loss of 32,000 jobs nationwide in November. ADP noted that “hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.”
On the other hand, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits declined, so softness in the labor market continues to be a risk more than a known fact.
Also, the newest data on income growth published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed that "real disposable personal income" — meaning after taxes and inflation — increased by 1.9% over the year from September 2024 to September 2025, and paid-out wages and salaries gained even more, 2.2%, after taxes and inflation.
In fact, growth in real disposable personal income has been relatively steady over the past two years, with wage and salary compensation averaging 2.5% more per year than inflation.
Perhaps it should not be a surprise, then, that consumers remain upbeat about their personal financial situation, despite receiving mixed signals from media reports about the job and housing markets.