Zohran Mamdani's Democratic primary victory in New York City's mayoral election has the real estate industry in the Big Apple discussing how his campaign promises could affect the housing market.
He is one of three candidates vying to be mayor of the nation's largest city, along with Republican Curtis Sliwa and incumbent Eric Adams, who is running as an independent. Mamdani became a finalist for mayor last month after a primary win against political veterans like former governor Andrew Cuomo and Scott Stringer, the city's onetime comptroller and a former state assemblyman. Winning the Democratic primary makes Mamdani the frontrunner heading into the summer in a city where voters lean heavily toward that party. Cuomo has not made an official announcement as to whether he will remain in the race.
Mamdani is running on a campaign platform in which he has promised, among other things, to freeze rent increases and raise property taxes on New Yorkers who earn at least $1 million a year. In a policy brief, the Mamdani campaign said it wants to raise property taxes on high-earning residents who live in luxury condominium buildings and co-ops because they are significantly underpaying taxes.
"The property tax system is unbalanced because assessment levels are artificially capped, so homeowners in expensive neighborhoods pay less than their fair share," according to the brief. "Take, for example, 220 Central Park South, the most expensive home ever sold in the United States, which the department valued at $9.4 million despite its staggering $228 million sale price. Taxing this property at its market value would raise $3 million per year alone."
Raising taxes on those high earners would be "effectively lowering tax payments for homeowners in neighborhoods like Jamaica and Brownsville while raising the amount paid in the most expensive Brooklyn brownstones," according to the campaign.
To be certain, any property tax plans Mamdani has will need the City Council's approval. Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, a Democrat, has said she will back Mamdani for mayor.
Mamdani's campaign did not return requests to comment on this story.
Local agents respond
Homes.com asked five randomly selected New York City real estate agents what a Mamdani victory could mean for the for-sale housing market:
Mable Ivory, with Real Broker:
"The day after Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral primary win, fears of a wealthy exodus to low-tax states like Florida surfaced. While his proposals to tax the rich and boost affordability have broad appeal, the real question is whether these policies will backfire — driving up rents, prices and costs elsewhere."
Michelle Griffith, with Douglas Elliman:
New Yorkers want equity across the boroughs, but how that's implemented will matter: "Any proposed shift in the city’s property tax structure deserves thoughtful analysis. A change that increases the burden on wealthier neighborhoods could have ripple effects on pricing, development, and long-term investment in those areas."
Paul Johansen, with The Corcoran Group:
"Anytime a candidate proposes reshaping the city’s property tax system, it sets off alarm bells in the industry, but it also opens the door to honest conversations we should be having. Yes, New York’s current property tax structure is outdated, opaque, and wildly inconsistent. If Mamdani is serious about addressing that, good. The system needs reform."
Johansen said Mamdani could help New York's housing market, but only "if he governs with balance, not just ideology."
"But here’s where it gets tricky," he said. "If 'Tax the Rich' translates into punishing neighborhoods like brownstone Brooklyn or the Upper West Side with sudden, disproportionate increases, we risk destabilizing the very market segments that prop up the city’s revenue and housing stock."
Frances Katzen, with Douglas Elliman:
New York's wealthy see Mamdani's proposal as a way to "vilify high earners" and, if implemented, "the city loses the trickle-down economic engine that funds everything, including affordable housing initiatives and jobs in construction.
"If policies start to penalize success by shifting tax burdens onto wealthier neighborhoods or discouraging developers, it could reduce the incentive for private investment and trigger a migration of capital. Developers and private landlords play a key role in adding supply and maintaining the health of the housing ecosystem."
Some of that exodus has already begun, Katzen said. One of her clients, "who has owned and rented out a condo unit in Manhattan for over a decade," left New York City, in part, because "the possibility of increased taxes made it more practical to exit the market," she said.
Ruthie Assouline, an agent with Douglas Elliman:
Mamdani is looking to apply "socialist principles to a fundamentally capitalist city.
"Developers might slow or cancel pipeline projects, fearing profitability won't pencil out, and that could lead to a long-term housing supply issue, making affordability worse over time."