The National Association of Realtors has dropped its predictions for the Top 10 Homebuying Hot Spots for 2026.
Jacksonville was Florida’s only market on the list, and its inclusion comes as something of a surprise to one area agent.
“Really?” Dana Hancock, leader of The Dana Hancock Team with ReMax Specialists, asked Homes.com upon hearing the news. “It’s been slow.”
These markets made the top 10 (in alphabetical order):
Affordability plays a role in rankings
For its report, NAR focused on metrics related to affordability, as well as markets with young households ready to buy, job growth and rising inventory.
“Lower mortgage rates and larger inventory will attract buyers back to the market in 2026,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “The top 10 housing hot spots for 2026 have a combination of strong demand potential, projected improvements in affordability, and, most critically, a housing stock that matches the budgets of the buyers who are returning to the market.”
It's no surprise then to see Columbus on the list. The city topped the rankings of major U.S. metropolitan areas for listings growth in September, with a 41.6% jump year over year, according to exclusive Homes.com data. Raleigh wasn't far behind, with a 40.6% increase.
Hancock, who has worked in the Jacksonville market for 27 years, sees affordability and jobs as two of the port city's strengths.
“We are a job-based city, and most of the rest of Florida is a tourism or [retirement]-based market,” she said. “We’re our own animal up here.”
Owners in vacation markets don’t tend to have much pressure on them to move or sell, Hancock said. Conversely, Jacksonville’s young population is mostly workers at different inflection points in their lives. NAR notes in its report that 34% of households are headed by millennials.
And Jacksonville? "It’s primarily families,” Hancock said.
Jacksonville’s median home price was $362,750 in October, which is up more than 33% over what it was before the pandemic but down 4% in the past 12 months, according to Homes.com. The city sits at the very bottom of the top 40 largest markets for price growth, according to exclusive Homes.com data.
The price is the lowest of Florida's four largest metropolitan areas, with Miami at $560,000, Orlando at $410,000 and Tampa at $372,600.
That’s part of what is priming it for a big year, according to Lisa McNatt, director of analytics for Homes.com. “Among all primary Florida markets, Jacksonville offers the best value proposition,” McNatt said. “It provides quick access to the beach, has a thriving economy that continues to attract new residents and corporate expansions, and a median price point well below larger and denser markets in the state.”
Resellers are holding back
One major factor has been an upswing in new construction, according to Hancock. “We have a ton of new construction available. And the builders have gotten very aggressive on their pricing.”
Resellers, however, have been sitting on the sidelines. “The number of listings has not increased measurably year over year as of October, although it had been rising significantly through mid-2025,” McNatt said. “The slowdown is largely due to seasonality, with fewer sellers historically listing their homes in the final months of the year.”
Hancock said mortgage rates are the biggest thumb on that scale. “There’s been this huge number of people that are ready to sell,” she said. “They’re not married to their houses, but they’re married to their interest rates. I think next year, a lot of people are going to say, ‘I’m done. I have to buy or I have to sell.’”
According to Freddie Mac, the mortgage rate average on the 30-year fixed dropped to 6.19% last week. The rate averaged 6.69% in early December 2024.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve voted to cut the key interest rate by a quarter of a point, but that doesn’t guarantee that mortgage rates will continue to trend downward. The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. Instead, it controls the short-term federal funds rate — what banks charge one another for loans. When the Fed signals changes in that rate, it can influence long-term borrowing costs, including mortgage rates.
Hancock said the idea of a hot Jacksonville market isn’t unlikely; it's just a matter of time. “We have so much pent-up demand," she said. "It’s going to bust loose at some point. It might as well be this year.”