Roundup: Inflation lower but data missing; Trump touts 'aggressive housing reform'; Architect billings down

While this week’s consumer price data has the Trump administration celebrating lower-than-expected inflation, economists are cautioning Americans not to read too much into the figure.

From September to November, the Consumer Price Index increased by 2.7% from November 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, its lowest percentage since July. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, came in at 2.6%, lower than many economists expected.

While these cooling figures seemingly suggest some relief for cost-burdened consumers, economists caution that the numbers are skewed by a now-familiar refrain: Due to the federal government shutdown this fall, the BLS didn’t collect any CPI data in October.

“It’s hard to read too much into the November inflation data,” Navy Federal Credit Union economist Heather Long said in a statement. “The shutdown clearly had a big impact on data collection. Inflation did not suddenly improve a lot between September and November. Anyone who has been to the grocery store or paid a utility bill knows this.”

To that point, the index reflected persistently high costs plaguing homeowners. The unadjusted shelter index increased 3% year over year, and household furnishings and operations were up 4.6%.

Omair Sharif, the founder and president of Inflation Insights, put his read on November’s CPI data bluntly.

“This is totally inexcusable,” Sharif told The Wall Street Journal’s Nick Timiraos. “The BLS just assumed rent/[operating expense ratio] were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero. There is just no world in which this was a good idea, but here we are."

President Donald Trump addressed the nation from the White House on Wednesday night, highlighting the accomplishments from his first 11 months back in office and goals for 2026.

Housing emerged as a key theme.

Trump said he will announce “the most aggressive housing reform plans in American history" next year, but he didn't get into specifics. He did forecast, however, that the mortgage rate decline in 2026 would be "shocking" and said the annual cost of a new home loan had already fallen $3,000 under his tenure. Industry experts have been forecasting a modest decline next year.

The president said his appointment of the next chair of the Federal Reserve would facilitate a big drop, noting that the next leader will be "someone who believes in lower interest rates by a lot."

Jerome Powell's tenure as Fed chair ends in May.

The president pinned the nation's housing affordability problems on the prior administration and the influx of undocumented migrants, and despite recent interest rate cuts by the Fed, inflation remains elevated.

In the Democratic response to the speech, Sen. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan refuted Trump's statements and pointed out that home prices are continuing to climb under the administration.

As high building material costs and an uncertain economic landscape keep property owners conservative, the nation’s architecture firms are still seeing decreased demand.

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index came in at 45.3 for November, well below the threshold of 50 that indicates expanding business activity for firms. The monthly index, published by the American Institute of Architects, measures the invoices firms send to clients as a measure of the profession’s economic activity.

Billings stayed under 50 for firms across specialties — institutional, multifamily residential, commercial/industrial and mixed-practice — and nearly all U.S. regions. The Midwest proved the exception, with its billings coming in at 52.3.

“Weakness in business conditions at architecture firms continues to be widespread, with declining billings across all major specializations and in every region except the Midwest,” said AIA chief economist Kermit Baker. “However, inquiries for new projects continued to increase, and design activity at firms in the Midwest — a region that traditionally has had a disproportionate share of manufacturing activity — appears to have hit its bottom for this cycle and is expected to continue to improve.”

November’s weak billings marked the 13th-straight month of sub-50 billings. Over the last 38 months, 35 months have seen billings below 50. The design contracts firms sent to clients also fell in November, coming in at 42.7, although project inquiries did stay above 50, clocking in at 51.4.