Unemployment jumps, hitting highest rate since 2021
The U.S. job market showed cracks in October and November, weakening as the nation’s unemployment rate hit a four-year high.
“In this mid-month release of employment data, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is reporting evidence of a weakening labor market,” said Bright MLS chief economist Lisa Sturtevant. “The report comes with a few asterisks, and we are going to need more data to get a clear picture about the overall health of the labor market. For the 2026 housing market, it is going to be a tug of war between the labor market and the mortgage market.”
After revising the September jobs numbers down, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a loss of more than 100,000 jobs in October, mostly due to a nosedive in federal government positions. November painted a rosier employment picture, as nonfarm employment added 64,000 jobs in November, healthcare increased by 46,000 positions and construction rose by 28,000. Residential building saw its employment increase by 0.7% over the past 12 months, according to the Associated Builders and Contractors trade group. Still, those figures weren’t enough to erase October’s job loss.
The number of unemployed people in the United States hit 7.8 million individuals for a rate of 4.6% in November, up from 4.4% in September and from 4.2% a year earlier. (The agency explained that it didn't report October's numbers because of the federal government shutdown running from Oct. 1 to Nov. 12.)
Wage growth also dipped, pointed out Dean Baker, senior economist for the Center for Economic and Policy Research.
“Wage growth fell to 3.5% over the last year, only slightly higher than the rate of inflation,” Baker said in a statement. “This [is] a story of the continued weakening of the labor market that we have seen since early this year.”
Overall, this weakening market could pave the way for lower mortgage rates, Sturtevant said. “Assuming labor market conditions simply weaken rather than collapse, Bright MLS is forecasting that lower rates and pent-up demand will lead to higher home sales in 2026, though buyers will still be cautious and price growth will be much more muted than it has in recent years.”
Retail sales are flat
U.S. retail sales tallied $732.6 billion in October, marking only a 0.5% growth from September, figures from the U.S. Census Bureau revealed Tuesday.
“The retail sales report for October was a dud, but the underlying details offer more encouraging signals for (fourth-quarter) consumer spending and an elevated starting point for the critical two-month stretch for holiday sales,” Wells Fargo economist Tim Quinlan said in a research note Tuesday.
The retail data, which typically would have been released in November but was delayed by the federal shutdown, reflects the dollar value of all products and services sold to U.S. consumers — including sales tax. Within the data, furniture and home furnishing stores recorded a 2.3% jump — a total of $11.27 billion in sales in October, up from $10.88 billion in September.
"The 2.3% increase in furniture and home furnishings sales is an encouraging sign for independent retailers, many of whom have been navigating a challenging retail environment," Peter Theran, CEO of the Home Furnishings Association, told Homes.com over email. "It suggests consumers are reengaging with the home and making more deliberate purchases centered on comfort, quality and value."
In a separate report that tracked October to November activity, the National Retail Federation said it also noticed month-to-month sales were flat, but year-to-year numbers were much stronger. Furniture and home furnishing stores sales were up 0.01% between October and November and up 0.5% year over year in November, NRF said.
"Many retailers continue to operate in a dynamic environment shaped by interest rates, housing activity and ongoing cost pressures," Theran added. "While one month does not define a trend, this growth is a positive signal heading into the final months of the year and reinforces the resilience of independent home furnishings retailers who have adapted quickly to changing consumer needs.
Matthew Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation, said one reason might explain why the numbers across retail sectors haven’t nudged much.
“Consumers are focusing on value and spending carefully during the holiday period, and retailers are offering products at competitive prices to fit every budget,” Shay said in a statement on Friday.
Americans say their finances suffered this year, but have hope for 2026
Many Americans faced economic setbacks in 2025, but that hasn’t sapped their hopes for a more prosperous 2026, according to a new study.
With unexpected expenses piling up, 49% of Americans thought their finances worsened in 2025, according to a new report from Intuit Credit Karma. The California-headquartered financial platform conducted the survey with Qualtrics, which polled more than 1,000 U.S. adults about their financial regrets from 2025 and their thoughts on what 2026 might hold for their pocketbooks.
In addition to unexpected expenses, 2025’s financial road bumps included falling credit scores, late payments on loans, mortgages and credit card bills, and the rising costs of everyday necessities. Sixty-seven percent of those polled said those same inflationary prices shaped their spending habits in 2025.
When it came to regrets, 38% of those polled said they rued not saving money and 28% regretted impulse shopping, among other financial missteps. Respondents also had worries heading into 2026, with 27% worried about layoffs and just 43% saying their salaries kept pace with cost-of-living increases.
Even after weathering these challenges, 45% of the Americans surveyed “feel confident in their ability to reach their 2026 financial goals,” the report found.
Still, when questioned about what would most improve their economic situation in the new year, 50% pointed to a lower cost of living and 49% suggested a higher income — both “solutions outside their control,” Intuit Credit Karma stated.